Afghanistan’s Semi-Final Hopes Hanging by a Thread
After their match against Australia was washed out due to rain, Afghanistan’s fate now hangs by a thread. With an almost impossible equation ahead, they are now looking towards England for a miracle.
Whether the abandoned match was good or bad for Afghanistan is debatable. Given the state of the game, they wouldn’t be too unhappy. A win would have guaranteed their semi-final spot, but a loss would have knocked them out. And the way things were going, Hashmatullah Shahidi’s team was on the verge of defeat.
Australia had already raced to 109 runs in just 12.5 overs while chasing. While nothing in cricket is certain, had the game continued for 20 overs or even the full match, Australia had a strong chance of winning. However, the rain ensured Afghanistan still has a mathematical chance of making it to the semi-finals, though it remains highly unlikely.
The Tough Equation for Afghanistan
Australia’s four points have secured their semi-final spot. South Africa and Afghanistan both have three points, but the Proteas have a significant edge in net run rate (2.140) compared to Afghanistan’s -0.990.
Now, Afghanistan’s hopes rest on England, a team already eliminated. For Afghanistan to qualify, England must bat first against South Africa in Karachi on Saturday and win by a staggering margin of 207 runs, provided the match is completed in full.
Is It Even Possible?
It’s extremely difficult, but not entirely impossible. England has won ODIs by such margins before. They defeated New Zealand by 210 runs in 2015, crushed the Netherlands by 232 runs in 2022, and demolished Australia by 242 runs in 2018 after posting 481.
But the big question is—can this struggling England team pull off such a performance?
The South Africa Scenario
If South Africa bats first, their semi-final spot is almost assured. Unless they collapse badly, their net run rate is unlikely to drop below Afghanistan’s.
Even in the worst-case scenario, England would need to chase their target at a lightning pace.
For perspective:
- If South Africa gets bowled out for 50, England must chase it in 5.4 overs.
- If they score 75, England must finish in 7.6 overs.
- If they reach 100, England needs to chase in 9.6 overs.
- If they score 125, England must do it in 11.5 overs.
- The exact equation will be clear after the first innings.
Just a Matter of Time?
Realistically, Afghanistan’s exit seems like just a matter of time. However, after the Australia match was abandoned, captain Hashmatullah Shahidi remained hopeful.
“No one knows what will happen. We still have hope. We will be watching the next match and hoping England wins by a big margin.”
