South Africa, currently at the top of the points table, needs just one more win to secure a place in the ICC Test Championship final. Australia and India are also in contention, with Sri Lanka still having a slim chance. Not long ago, it seemed almost improbable, but now it’s a reality. South Africa, after their superb victories over Bangladesh in October and November, and a 2-0 series win against Sri Lanka, are leading the points table and are the favorites to reach the final.
Australia and India are still very much in the race, with Sri Lanka also holding onto faint hopes. Pakistan has not yet mathematically been eliminated.
The fight for the Test Championship final is now more intense than ever, more so than in the previous editions. New Zealand, the winners of the first edition, saw their hopes dashed after losing 2-0 to England. England, Bangladesh, and the West Indies have all been eliminated earlier.
Here’s a look at the current situation for the teams competing for a spot in the final:
South Africa
Points Percentage: 63.33
Matches Remaining: 2 (against Pakistan at home)
South Africa, after winning the series 2-0 against Sri Lanka, has secured the top spot. With two home matches remaining against Pakistan, a win in either match will confirm their first-ever appearance in the final. A series win of 2-0 or 1-0 will be enough. If the series ends in a 1-1 draw, their points percentage will drop to 61.11%, and only one of India or Australia can overtake them. In the unlikely event of a 0-0 draw, South Africa’s points will stand at 58.33%, but Australia or India may surpass them under specific scenarios.
Sri Lanka
Points Percentage: 45.45
Matches Remaining: 2 (against Australia at home)
Sri Lanka’s chances took a significant blow after losing both Tests in South Africa. However, if they win both matches against Australia in January-February, their points will rise to 53.85%. Still, they would depend on other results, and South Africa or either of Australia or India could surpass them. If Sri Lanka wins 2-0, they could stay ahead, but Australia would need two victories to overtake them.
India
Points Percentage: 57.29
Matches Remaining: 3 (against Australia in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy)
India needs to win two out of the three remaining Tests in Australia, and a draw in the third, to secure their place in the final. This would bring their points percentage to 60.53%. If they achieve this, Sri Lanka’s two wins in their remaining matches would still leave India ahead. A 3-2 series win would bring India’s points to 58.77%, which would be enough to stay in the race.
Australia
Points Percentage: 60.71
Matches Remaining: 5 (3 in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, 2 in Sri Lanka)
Australia is in a strong position, and winning two out of the three remaining Tests against India would almost guarantee their place in the final. Even if they lose in Sri Lanka, they will still be in the race. A 3-2 win over India would push their points to 58.77%, and even if Sri Lanka beats them in two matches, Australia would still have a chance to qualify.
Pakistan
Points Percentage: 33.33
Matches Remaining: 4 (2 against South Africa, 2 at home against West Indies)
Pakistan’s chances are minimal, but mathematically, they are still in the race. Winning all four of their remaining matches would bring their points to 52.38%, but they would still be behind South Africa. For Pakistan to qualify, South Africa would need to lose points due to slow over rates or a complex set of results.
